Price Position and Structural State
My Neighbor Alice (ALICE) closed at 0.1181 USDT on July 15, 2026, down 0.25%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.0925 USDT, with resistance near 0.2007 USDT. A daily close below 0.0925 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
ALICE is trading below all key moving averages, but the weakness is still early rather than deeply stretched. MA50 at 0.11838 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to reclaim. Price sits 0.24% below MA50, within a historical range of -64.67% to 143.92%. The structure is bearish, but downside extension remains inside its normal range.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
ALICE shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 16.9. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -2.51% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 30-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.004735%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 1.51, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
ALICE shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.502 | 2.083 | 0.252 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.497 | 1.348 | 0.247 | Moderate linkage |
| 180D | 0.374 | 0.767 | 0.14 | Moderate linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
ALICE's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 10.24, near the lower side of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 24.91, near the lower side of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.86. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
Momentum is mixed. RSI is 47.15, ROC14 is -4.22%, and MACD histogram does not confirm a clean direction. Indicator pressure remains uneven.
The read is incomplete, so support, resistance, and the daily close matter more than the indicator setup.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. ALICE has a moderate link to that market condition, so broader market moves can influence price behavior, but the effect is not consistent.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For ALICE, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.2007 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.0925 USDT confirms a bearish regime.