Price Position and Structural State
My Neighbor Alice (ALICE) closed at 0.123 USDT on May 29, 2026, up 1.23%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.104 USDT, with resistance near 0.2632 USDT. A daily close below 0.104 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
ALICE is trading below all key moving averages. MA9 at 0.125356 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. Price sits 10.36% below MA50, within its historical distance range of -64.67% to 143.92%. The moving-average structure is bearish without showing extreme downside extension.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
ALICE shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 27.3. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest increased +0.35% in one day but remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is improving from a low leverage base.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.004049%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 1.79, sitting near the upper side of its 30-day range at 87.77%. This means long accounts are unusually dominant compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
ALICE shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.251 | 0.628 | 0.063 | Weak linkage |
| 60D | 0.214 | 0.567 | 0.046 | Weak linkage |
| 180D | 0.4 | 0.72 | 0.16 | Moderate linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
ALICE's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 8.06, close to the bottom of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 26.65, near the lower side of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.22. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 41.61, ROC14 is -8.82%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. ALICE has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends mainly on asset specific structure rather than the broader market.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For ALICE, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.2632 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.104 USDT confirms a bearish regime.