Event Outcomes

Event Outcomes tracks how Sigloid Live Market Signals performed after detected 55-day breakout and breakdown events. It measures follow-through, maximum favorable excursion (MFE), maximum adverse excursion (MAE), directional expansion, and symbol-level outcome behavior under real market conditions.

Sigloid provides market research only, not financial advice, trade instructions, or guaranteed results.

Open Events
179
Live
Currently active
Closed Events
2,259
History
All time
Usable Outcomes
2,259
MFE+Heat
Complete records
MFE (Opportunity)
21.27%
AverageAvg
Median: 8.12%
Heat (MAE)
7.63%
AverageAvg
Median: 5.39%
What these numbers mean
MFE = opportunityHeat = move againstMedian (P50)
MFE% is the best move in the event direction after it triggered. It helps you understand how much opportunity usually shows up.
Heat% is based on MAE. It shows how much price moved against the event at its worst point. We show it as a positive number so it is easy to read.
Average shows the typical size across all events.
Median (P50) shows the middle outcome and is less affected by rare extreme moves.
P75 means most events stayed below this level and only some events went above it.
P90 means it is uncommon. Only a small number of events went above it.
This is research for understanding market behavior. It is not a trading recommendation and it does not promise future results.
MFE% Distribution (Opportunity)
Percentiles
Median (P50) means 50% of signals stayed below this MFE level. P75 means 75% stayed below it, while 25% moved above it before the event closed.
Higher percentiles show stronger follow-through that happened less often.
Min
0.00%
Median (P50)
8.12%
P75
24.88%
P90
43.07%
P95
61.09%
Max
3568.53%
Heat% Distribution (based on MAE)
Percentiles
Median (P50) means 50% of signals stayed below this heat level. P75 means 75% stayed below it, while 25% moved above it before the event closed.
Higher percentiles show larger adverse moves that happened less often.
Min
0.00%
Median (P50)
5.39%
P75
10.55%
P90
18.03%
P95
23.34%
Max
89.50%
LONG vs SHORT Breakdown
Average and Median by direction
LONG
Events: 906
MFE Avg
31.59%
MFE Median
9.78%
Heat Avg
10.68%
Heat Median
8.41%
SHORT
Events: 1,353
MFE Avg
14.36%
MFE Median
6.62%
Heat Avg
5.59%
Heat Median
4.06%
Top Symbols (Outcomes Summary)
Higher n = more reliable
n means how many closed events we have for that symbol in the selected history range.
SymbolnMedian MFE%P75 MFE%Median Heat%P75 Heat%
SXTUSDT115.50%9.27%4.59%6.97%
THEUSDT115.37%13.15%5.83%7.62%
JSTUSDT112.65%3.87%3.45%4.68%
GRIFFAINUSDT107.76%11.48%9.02%17.09%
SKYAIUSDT922.41%28.95%7.47%12.99%
BASUSDT99.95%35.71%14.40%16.95%
BLUAIUSDT97.86%15.10%14.24%19.63%
SCRTUSDT97.73%8.97%7.65%8.51%
IDUSDT95.15%5.88%6.22%6.98%
UBUSDT94.02%26.93%11.54%16.44%
DOODUSDT93.76%5.49%6.66%8.04%
METUSDT92.49%6.23%8.07%9.54%
ACHUSDT92.26%6.62%4.13%5.88%
LYNUSDT821.42%39.74%13.68%15.61%
STOUSDT819.23%34.26%5.68%8.30%
POWERUSDT815.07%20.95%10.66%18.38%
ARCUSDT89.06%20.89%22.81%28.93%
GUNUSDT88.49%14.23%9.03%19.27%
AXLUSDT87.56%11.51%4.89%7.79%
RIFUSDT86.88%13.01%7.28%9.42%
1000CHEEMSUSDT85.05%12.06%4.03%5.64%
ZKUSDT84.59%8.96%6.21%8.97%
MEUSDT82.94%6.27%2.74%5.15%
CARVUSDT81.25%3.61%5.32%7.04%
NMRUSDT81.16%4.28%8.27%10.36%
Showing top 25 by sample size.
Latest Closed Outcomes
Rows: 50
Exit TimeSymbolDirectionMFE%Heat%
5/30/2026, 5:15:06 AMZKUSDTSHORT6.97%3.12%
5/30/2026, 5:01:06 AMCAKEUSDTSHORT0.48%5.80%
5/30/2026, 4:48:48 AMSCRUSDTSHORT0.05%8.33%
5/30/2026, 4:43:37 AMGUSDTSHORT5.33%2.24%
5/30/2026, 4:37:17 AMSTGUSDTSHORT18.35%0.33%
5/30/2026, 4:33:58 AMINXUSDTSHORT2.06%14.16%
5/30/2026, 4:07:21 AMSPELLUSDTSHORT1.23%4.71%
5/30/2026, 3:31:52 AMLTCUSDTSHORT1.89%2.03%
5/30/2026, 3:31:25 AMZETAUSDTSHORT1.82%7.02%
5/30/2026, 3:29:10 AMSCRTUSDTSHORT1.96%5.55%
5/30/2026, 3:27:50 AMSANDUSDTSHORT2.25%4.00%
5/30/2026, 3:25:38 AMCOTIUSDTSHORT5.89%2.88%
5/30/2026, 3:20:26 AMCELOUSDTSHORT8.51%2.71%
5/30/2026, 2:55:05 AMIOSTUSDTSHORT3.97%2.60%
5/30/2026, 2:52:26 AMPOWRUSDTSHORT3.10%3.67%
5/30/2026, 2:51:51 AMAUSDTSHORT5.14%3.76%
5/30/2026, 2:48:28 AMMANAUSDTSHORT1.93%3.26%
5/30/2026, 2:39:11 AMZRXUSDTSHORT1.43%6.01%
5/30/2026, 2:37:25 AMBSVUSDTSHORT2.58%1.79%
5/30/2026, 2:23:23 AMANKRUSDTSHORT2.64%3.65%
5/30/2026, 2:17:10 AMXRPUSDTSHORT0.60%4.93%
5/30/2026, 2:00:20 AMVTHOUSDTSHORT7.18%3.06%
5/29/2026, 11:44:11 PMKERNELUSDTSHORT0.00%7.91%
5/29/2026, 11:42:01 PMCELRUSDTSHORT0.48%10.00%
5/29/2026, 9:50:53 PMFIDAUSDTLONG82.19%25.45%
5/29/2026, 7:56:08 PMUSUSDTLONG23.60%17.04%
5/29/2026, 7:20:37 PMHEMIUSDTSHORT4.58%7.68%
5/29/2026, 7:12:43 PMMELANIAUSDTSHORT5.86%2.57%
5/29/2026, 6:34:15 PMWOOUSDTSHORT1.33%6.41%
5/29/2026, 5:54:56 PMNOMUSDTSHORT6.94%3.64%
5/29/2026, 5:30:34 PMTHEUSDTSHORT0.00%6.90%
5/29/2026, 5:13:18 PMXPTUSDTSHORT0.03%3.70%
5/29/2026, 4:26:24 PMTONUSDTLONG91.27%0.48%
5/29/2026, 3:51:43 PMEPICUSDTSHORT15.49%6.46%
5/29/2026, 3:39:40 PMSYNUSDTSHORT8.47%2.87%
5/29/2026, 1:56:17 PMHEIUSDTSHORT20.92%12.05%
5/29/2026, 1:21:42 PMSTBLUSDTSHORT8.28%6.58%
5/29/2026, 11:20:23 AMIOTXUSDTSHORT4.66%3.44%
5/29/2026, 11:10:41 AMPAXGUSDTSHORT1.82%1.47%
5/29/2026, 11:07:28 AMMEMEUSDTSHORT4.23%2.35%
5/29/2026, 9:59:09 AMTRXUSDTLONG11.64%0.57%
5/29/2026, 9:44:58 AMXAUUSDTSHORT1.88%1.62%
5/29/2026, 9:00:45 AMPYTHUSDTSHORT1.62%6.57%
5/29/2026, 4:21:26 AMIDUSDTSHORT4.67%9.81%
5/29/2026, 12:04:37 AMSXTUSDTSHORT13.47%0.55%
5/28/2026, 10:20:19 PMKOMAUSDTSHORT2.14%13.66%
5/28/2026, 9:24:05 PMPOWERUSDTSHORT6.21%5.56%
5/28/2026, 7:31:27 PMJSTUSDTLONG2.83%1.27%
5/28/2026, 6:21:02 PMXPDUSDTSHORT0.46%2.43%
5/28/2026, 4:41:33 PMGRASSUSDTLONG30.50%1.15%
MFE shows opportunity. Heat shows how much it moved against before finishing.

Event Outcomes FAQ

What does Event Outcomes show?

Event Outcomes shows historical follow-through after Sigloid Live Market Signals detect major structure breaks such as 55-day highs and lows. It tracks how far assets moved in the signal direction and how much heat appeared before the event closed.

What is maximum favorable excursion (MFE)?

Maximum favorable excursion, or MFE, measures the strongest move in the signal direction after an event was detected. It helps show how much opportunity appeared after the signal.

What is maximum adverse excursion (MAE)?

Maximum adverse excursion, or MAE, measures the worst move against the signal after detection. Sigloid displays it as Heat so users can compare how much adverse movement appeared during historical events.

Are Event Outcomes financial advice?

No. Event Outcomes is a research and analytics page. It summarizes observed historical behavior after Sigloid signals and does not provide financial advice, trade instructions, price targets, or guaranteed results.