Price Position and Structural State
ASMLUSDT (ASML) closed at 1,807.13 USDT on July 14, 2026, up 4.59%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 1,708.14 USDT, with resistance near 2,004.33 USDT. A daily close below 1,708.14 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
ASML is trading inside a zone of moving-average confluence. MA14 at 1,805.1 USDT sits just below price, while MA20 at 1,818.49 USDT sits just above. The compression across multiple moving averages signals range contraction rather than trend dominance. The next meaningful read comes from price separating cleanly from this cluster.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
ASML shows low trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 65.7. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show cleaner acceptance, with cleaner price progress and lighter wick rejection. This gives moves near support or resistance more weight, especially when price closes cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -1.32% in one day, showing some exposure was reduced. OI sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so the move reduces leverage from a normal base rather than clearing an already crowded leverage base.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.002202%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.001225%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 1.97, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
ASML shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | -0.015 | -0.023 | 0 | Inverse linkage |
| 60D | — | — | — | Not enough data |
| 180D | — | — | — | Not enough data |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
ASML's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 4.57, close to the bottom of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 12.12, near the middle of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 0.13. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 42.82, ROC14 is -9.20%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. ASML has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends mainly on asset specific structure rather than the broader market.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For ASML, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at unavailable establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at unavailable confirms a bearish regime.