Price Position and Structural State
Grass (GRASS) closed at 0.3698 USDT on July 16, 2026, down 3.62%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.3077 USDT, with resistance near 0.6245 USDT. A daily close below 0.3077 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
GRASS is trading below short-term moving averages while still holding above longer-term support. MA9 at 0.3826 USDT may cap short-term recovery attempts, while MA200 at 0.340654 USDT remains the more significant structural support area. The structure resembles a pullback within a broader trend more than a full trend failure.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
GRASS shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 39.5. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -4.98% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 30-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.005000%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 0.84, sitting near the lower side of its 180-day range at 14.17%. This means short accounts dominate, with the long/short reading near the low side of recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
GRASS shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.452 | 1.487 | 0.204 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.474 | 1.638 | 0.225 | Moderate linkage |
| 180D | 0.524 | 1.259 | 0.275 | Moderate linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
GRASS's bands are opening, but the move still lacks full support. Bollinger Band width% reads 58.50, close to the top of its 30-day range. ATR% reads 14.91, near the middle of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -1.01, showing below-normal participation.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 41.66, ROC14 is -28.44%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. GRASS has a moderate link to that market condition, so broader market moves can influence price behavior, but the effect is not consistent.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For GRASS, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.6245 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.3077 USDT confirms a bearish regime.