Price Position and Structural State
KraneShares SSE STAR Market 50 Index ETF (KSTR) closed at 20.07 USDT on October 15, 2026, up 0.75%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 19.32 USDT, with resistance near 25 USDT. A daily close below 19.32 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
KSTR is trading below all key moving averages. MA9 at 20.98 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. The more notable signal is downside extension: KSTR sits 12.34% below MA50, while its historical range runs from -13.30% to 3.32%. Price is now approaching the lower end of that historical range, which means the downside move is pronounced but also raises mean-reversion risk from a stretched position.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
KSTR shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 49.3. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest increased +8.12% in one day and moved above its 60-day range. This shows fresh leverage expansion, with new futures exposure now above the highest level from that range.
Funding is negative on the 24-hour average at -0.059536%, with the 7-day average also negative at -0.032335%. This shows sustained short-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 2.01, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
KSTR shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is strengthening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is strengthening.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.681 | 0.553 | 0.464 | Strong, lower beta |
| 60D | 0.327 | 0.226 | 0.107 | Moderate linkage |
| 180D | — | — | — | Not enough data |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
KSTR is trading with expanding volatility. ATR% reads 4.06, close to the top of its 30-day range, and Bollinger Band width% reads 18.82, close to the top of its 60-day range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 2.63, showing strong above-normal participation. Range movement, volatility structure, and participation are working together.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 28.45, ROC14 is -9.59%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. KSTR has a moderate link to that market condition, so broader market moves can influence price behavior, but the effect is not consistent.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For KSTR, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 25 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 19.68 USDT confirms a bearish regime.