Price Position and Structural State
Secret (SCRT) closed at 0.04169 USDT on July 14, 2026, down 0.31%. The asset now sits in a bearish structure. Price entered this structure after closing below 55-day support at 0.04105 USDT on July 8, 2026. Current 55-day support is near 0.03663 USDT, with resistance near 0.08704 USDT. A daily close above MA14 at 0.046149 USDT would weaken the regime and shift price back into sideways.
Breakdown Context: several-Session Support Pressure
Secret spent about several sessions consolidating above the 0.04105 USDT support level before a breakdown closed below it. This confirmed the bearish structural transition. The compression period shows sustained pressure at the support level, where repeated attempts to hold failed until sellers took control and pushed the price lower.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
SCRT is trading below all key moving averages. MA9 at 0.043167 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. Price sits 27.78% below MA50, within its historical distance range of -43.77% to 55.39%. The moving-average structure is bearish without showing extreme downside extension.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
SCRT shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 22.6. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -3.74% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.002176%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 1.28, sitting near the lower side of its 180-day range at 11.80%. This means long accounts still dominate, but the long tilt is weaker than usual compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
SCRT shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is weakening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is weakening. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.52 | 1.542 | 0.27 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.564 | 1.185 | 0.318 | Moderate linkage |
| 180D | 0.611 | 1.013 | 0.373 | Strong linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
SCRT's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 14.18, near the middle of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 43.98, near the middle of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.62. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 36.56, ROC14 is -13.47%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. SCRT has a moderate link to that market condition, so broader market moves can influence price behavior, but the effect is not consistent.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For SCRT, the next structural shift depends on key levels. Staying below MA14 at 0.046149 USDT keeps the current trend intact. A daily close above MA14 would weaken the structure and push price back into a range, while a confirmed break above 55-day resistance at 0.08704 USDT would establish a bullish regime.