Price Position and Structural State
Wormhole (W) closed at 0.014439 USDT on October 15, 2026, down 5.44%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.00864 USDT, with resistance near 0.03188 USDT. A daily close below 0.00864 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
W is trading below short-term moving averages while still holding above longer-term support. MA20 at 0.015351 USDT may cap short-term recovery attempts, while MA50 at 0.012262 USDT remains the more significant structural support area. The structure resembles a pullback within a broader trend more than a full trend failure.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
W shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 51.1. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -6.94% in one day, showing clear position reduction. OI sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so the move reduces leverage from a normal base rather than clearing an already crowded leverage base.
Funding is negative on the 24-hour average at -0.017371%, with the 7-day average also negative at -0.011328%. This shows sustained short-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 0.87 and has moved below its 180-day range. This means short accounts dominate, with the long/short reading near the low side of recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
W shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is weakening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is weakening. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.445 | 1.426 | 0.198 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.475 | 1.068 | 0.225 | Moderate linkage |
| 180D | 0.531 | 1.153 | 0.282 | Moderate linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
W is showing wider movement, but participation is not fully backing it. ATR% reads 19.29, above its 180-day range, while Bollinger Band width% reads 57.29, near the upper side of its 180-day range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.01, showing near-normal participation.
ROC14 is +9.21%, while RSI is 49.27 and MACD histogram remains negative. Multi-day acceleration has improved, but the broader momentum picture is still incomplete.
The read is still incomplete: momentum is improving, but volatility or participation has not confirmed the move strongly enough.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. W has a moderate link to that market condition, so broader market moves can influence price behavior, but the effect is not consistent.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For W, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.03188 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.00864 USDT confirms a bearish regime.