Price Position and Structural State
Wormhole (W) closed at 0.009624 USDT on August 27, 2026, up 0.41%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure inside its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.00777 USDT, with resistance near 0.01076 USDT. Price is near the middle of the range, so the market has no clear structural edge until it closes outside these levels.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
W is trading above short-term moving averages but remains below longer-term resistance. MA9 at 0.0093802 USDT can act as near-term support for the recovery attempt, while MA100 at 0.0097267 USDT is the key level to reclaim for a broader trend shift. Short-term structure has improved, but longer-term moving averages still show overhead resistance.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
W shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 28.3. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest increased +0.40% in one day but remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is improving from a low leverage base.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.005000%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 1.65, sitting near the upper side of its 60-day range at 82.07%. This means long accounts are unusually dominant compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
W remains strongly linked to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index), with beta showing normal sensitivity to index movements. Correlation confirms that W moves closely with the index, while R² shows that index behavior explains a significant share of its movement. This means broader market direction carries meaningful weight when interpreting W. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.632 | 0.852 | 0.4 | Strong linkage |
| 60D | 0.629 | 0.839 | 0.396 | Strong linkage |
| 180D | 0.607 | 1.068 | 0.369 | Strong linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
W is showing wider movement, but participation is not fully backing it. ATR% reads 6.64, close to the bottom of its full historical range, while Bollinger Band width% reads 26.81, near the lower side of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.43, showing near-normal participation.
Momentum is stronger. RSI is 59.66, ROC14 is +16.23%, and MACD histogram is positive. These readings point in the same direction: upside pressure is active across momentum and multi-day acceleration.
The read is still incomplete: momentum is improving, but volatility or participation has not confirmed the move strongly enough.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a bullish regime, showing broad strength across the market. W stays closely linked to that market condition, so broader market strength can support price behavior and keep market direction important for this asset.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For W, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.01076 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.00777 USDT confirms a bearish regime.