Price Position and Structural State
4 (4) closed at 0.013522 USDT on October 15, 2026, down 7.91%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.008783 USDT, with resistance near 0.035758 USDT. A daily close below 0.008783 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
4 is trading below short-term moving averages while still holding above longer-term support. MA100 at 0.014882 USDT may cap short-term recovery attempts, while MA200 at 0.012825 USDT remains the more significant structural support area. The structure resembles a pullback within a broader trend more than a full trend failure.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
4 shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 43.8. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -4.08% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 30-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.007677%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.009296%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 2.11, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
4 shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.488 | 1.637 | 0.239 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.331 | 1.417 | 0.11 | Moderate linkage |
| 180D | 0.293 | 1.185 | 0.086 | Weak linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
4 has active volume inside a compressed structure. 20-day Volume Z-score is 1.51. ATR% reads 18.84, near the lower side of its full historical range, and Bollinger Band width% reads 59.97, near the middle of its full historical range. Participation is present, but price has not started moving freely yet.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 35.77, ROC14 is -34.44%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is simple: volatility is compressed and momentum is not strong enough yet. A better signal would need range expansion with stronger volume.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. 4 has a moderate link to that market condition, so broader market moves can influence price behavior, but the effect is not consistent.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For 4, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.035758 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.008783 USDT confirms a bearish regime.