ALCH Daily Analysis Explained

Closed-candle research summary • Updated 2026-02-09

Last close: 0.082670 365D range: 0.014040 to 0.246410 Key levels (55D): 0.078450 / 0.246410 MA14: 0.091238 MA50: 0.121011 MA200: 0.117657 Asset state: SIDEWAYS (since 2026-01-21) Sigloid Index: Bias BEARISH • Regime BEARISH (2026-02-09)

Daily Analysis Explained

Built from closed daily candles only. It summarizes what the recent data shows using the latest confirmed close, not predictions.

Use it to understand the asset’s state, key levels, and how it has behaved relative to the Sigloid Index.

Price Structure and Asset State

As of the most recent closed session (2026-02-09), the close is 0.08267 (-3.99% vs the prior close).

55 day range levels are 0.07845 (support) and 0.24641 (resistance).

Asset state is SIDEWAYS, active since 2026-01-21.

State Monitoring and Trend References

Price is inside the 55 day range and currently sits in the lower part of that range.

The close is below MA14 (0.091238), a short-term pivot.

The close is below MA50 (0.121011), a medium-term guide.

The close is below MA200 (0.117657), a long-horizon anchor level.

Price Behavior and Friction

Friction is HIGH. This is a read of effort versus progress using multi-day candle quality and volatility behavior.

Volatility is 17.81% ATR and 50.27% Bollinger width. Relative volume signal (Z20) is 0.08.

Participation and Positioning

Open interest is -0.86% over 1 day and 8.75% over 7 days.

Funding is 0.000050 and long/short ratio is 0.65.

Intent read: Short positioning. Price is in the lower part of the range while open interest has been building.

Asset Sensitivity to the Sigloid Index

60D correlation is weak (0.02). Correlation describes how consistently this asset moves in the same direction as the index.

180D correlation is weak (0.06), which helps confirm whether the relationship holds over a longer window.

60D beta is low (0.06). Beta measures sensitivity: above 1 means amplified moves relative to the index, below 1 means muted moves.

180D beta is low (0.15), a longer-horizon view of that sensitivity.

60D R² is low (0.00). R² is a reliability check: higher means more of this asset’s moves were explained by the index during the window.

180D R² is low (0.00), which reduces the risk of over-reading a short sample.

Indicator Trends

Volume is above its 14 day average and is rising versus recent norms, which frames participation quality.

Bollinger width is below its 14 day average, pointing to volatility compression.

ATR percent is above its 14 day average, so daily ranges are wider than the recent baseline.

RSI is below its 14 day average and weakening versus the last two weeks.

MACD histogram is above its 14 day average, a simple check on short-term momentum bias.

Open interest is below its 14 day average, which suggests leverage has been unwinding versus the recent baseline.

Funding is below its 14 day average, which helps flag crowding risk when it rises without matching price progress.

Regime Alignment

Sigloid Index bias is BEARISH (primary regime: BEARISH), active since 2026-02-09.

Alignment is mixed. Aligned conditions tend to be easier to sustain. Mixed or against conditions tend to be more fragile.

This asset has been less index-linked historically, so the index bias is less informative for it than for high-correlation assets.

What Would Change the Asset State

System definition: BULLISH only on a daily close above 0.24641. BEARISH only on a daily close below 0.07845. Otherwise the state is SIDEWAYS.

Indicators, last 15 closed days

dateclosema14ma50ma200rsi14macd_histroc14atr_pctbb_width_pctrv30vol_z20oi_usdtfunding_lastls_ratiobasis_pct
2026-01-26 0.107170 0.129368 0.147975 0.121249 41.56 -0.00 -33.86 unavailable 59.29 207.73 unavailable 14066943 0.00005000 0.56 unavailable
2026-01-27 0.108630 0.126978 0.146140 0.121032 42.18 -0.00 -23.55 unavailable 60.65 206.35 unavailable 13739162 0.00005000 0.58 unavailable
2026-01-28 0.103360 0.123348 0.144321 0.120816 40.52 -0.00 -32.96 unavailable 63.35 206.96 unavailable 13925930 0.00005000 0.58 unavailable
2026-01-29 0.098580 0.119521 0.142505 0.120575 39.03 -0.00 -35.21 unavailable 67.27 207.34 unavailable 13298975 0.00005000 0.60 unavailable
2026-01-30 0.092900 0.115730 0.140719 0.120327 37.26 -0.00 -36.36 unavailable 72.31 207.20 unavailable 12656115 0.00005000 0.63 unavailable
2026-01-31 0.087470 0.111839 0.138843 0.120061 35.61 -0.00 -38.38 unavailable 78.02 208.00 unavailable 11947954 0.00005000 0.75 unavailable
2026-02-01 0.086850 0.107281 0.137035 0.119797 35.42 -0.00 -42.36 unavailable 78.83 205.30 unavailable 10894877 0.00005000 0.68 unavailable
2026-02-02 0.084370 0.102227 0.135119 0.119521 34.61 -0.00 -45.61 unavailable 82.77 205.04 unavailable 10824187 0.00005000 0.64 unavailable
2026-02-03 0.099620 0.102812 0.133553 0.119313 43.20 -0.00 8.96 unavailable 79.96 214.56 unavailable 10542540 0.00005000 0.68 unavailable
2026-02-04 0.084820 0.100734 0.131776 0.119034 37.98 -0.00 -25.54 unavailable 78.93 219.60 unavailable 13921568 0.00005000 0.54 unavailable
2026-02-05 0.087730 0.098423 0.129182 0.118772 39.53 -0.00 -26.95 unavailable 77.07 218.01 unavailable 11826171 0.00005000 0.78 unavailable
2026-02-06 0.086400 0.095991 0.126815 0.118489 39.05 -0.00 -28.27 unavailable 74.91 217.28 unavailable 12195075 0.00005000 0.53 unavailable
2026-02-07 0.087820 0.094663 0.125030 0.118208 39.89 -0.00 -17.47 unavailable 66.35 217.12 unavailable 11707601 0.00011175 0.66 unavailable
2026-02-08 0.086110 0.092988 0.123032 0.117939 39.19 0.00 -21.40 unavailable 48.43 216.64 unavailable 11873640 0.00005000 0.58 unavailable
2026-02-09 0.082670 0.091238 0.121011 0.117657 37.76 0.00 -22.86 unavailable 50.27 216.16 unavailable 11771029 0.00005000 0.65 unavailable

Data source: Binance futures market data. Indicators use closed daily candles only.

Disclaimer: Research context only. Not financial advice. No prediction. Crypto markets are risky.