Price Position and Structural State
Just a chill guy (CHILLGUY) closed at 0.009839 USDT on October 15, 2026, down 0.14%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.008412 USDT, with resistance near 0.01644 USDT. A daily close below 0.008412 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
CHILLGUY is trading below all key moving averages. MA9 at 0.010577 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. Price sits 21.63% below MA50, within its historical distance range of -76.96% to 198.04%. The moving-average structure is bearish without showing extreme downside extension.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
CHILLGUY shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 26.2. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -1.99% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 60-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.005848%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 3.36, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
CHILLGUY remains strongly linked to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index), with beta indicating higher sensitivity to index movements. Correlation confirms that CHILLGUY moves in line with the index, while R² shows that index behavior explains a significant share of its movement. Elevated beta means price tends to amplify broader market moves rather than simply track them. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.725 | 1.361 | 0.525 | Strong, high beta |
| 60D | 0.634 | 1.429 | 0.402 | Strong, high beta |
| 180D | 0.552 | 1.5 | 0.305 | Moderate linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
CHILLGUY's volatility envelope is starting to open. Bollinger Band width% reads 47.95, near the lower side of its full historical range, while ATR% reads 10.65, close to the bottom of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 1.55. Bands are widening before daily range expansion has fully followed.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 31.62, ROC14 is -26.99%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is incomplete, so support, resistance, and the daily close matter more than the indicator setup.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. CHILLGUY stays closely linked to that market condition, so changes in market sentiment can still influence price behavior even when the broader trend is unclear.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For CHILLGUY, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.01644 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.008412 USDT confirms a bearish regime.