Price Position and Structural State
SUPERFORTUNE (GUA) closed at 0.03999 USDT on August 30, 2026, down 5.33%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.03318 USDT, with resistance near 0.0768 USDT. A daily close below 0.03318 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
GUA is trading between key moving averages. MA9 at 0.039954 USDT stands as moving-average support, while MA14 at 0.041334 USDT stands as moving-average resistance. This creates a clear decision zone. A sustained hold above MA9 at 0.039954 USDT keeps the structure constructive, while a rejection near MA14 at 0.041334 USDT leaves the trend unresolved.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
GUA shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 35.7. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest increased +3.64% in one day but remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is improving from a low leverage base.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.032036%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.022143%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 6.84 and has moved above its 180-day range. This means long accounts are unusually dominant compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
GUA shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.031 | 0.153 | 0.001 | Weak linkage |
| 60D | -0.068 | -0.442 | 0.005 | Inverse linkage |
| 180D | -0.029 | -0.208 | 0.001 | Inverse linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
GUA remains in a low-volatility setup. ATR% reads 18.74, close to the bottom of its full historical range, and Bollinger Band width% reads 30.09, close to the bottom of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.39, so participation is not forcing a broader move yet.
MACD histogram has turned positive, while RSI is 40.51 and ROC14 is -5.68%. Short-term impulse is trying to turn first, but broader momentum and acceleration still lag.
The read is early: some pressure is improving, but the asset remains compressed. A better signal would need range expansion and stronger volume.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a bullish regime, showing broad strength across the market. GUA has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends more on its own structure than on the broader market trend.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For GUA, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.0768 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.03318 USDT confirms a bearish regime.