Price Position and Structural State
Hamster Kombat (HMSTR) closed at 0.0001884 USDT on July 16, 2026, down 0.11%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.00012 USDT, with resistance near 0.0004396 USDT. A daily close below 0.00012 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
HMSTR is trading below short-term moving averages while still holding above longer-term support. MA50 at 0.0001928 USDT may cap short-term recovery attempts, while MA200 at 0.0001805 USDT remains the more significant structural support area. The structure resembles a pullback within a broader trend more than a full trend failure.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
HMSTR shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 20.6. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -2.90% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 90-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is negative on the 24-hour average at -0.017362%, with the 7-day average also negative at -0.006616%. This shows sustained short-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 0.62, sitting near the lower side of its 180-day range at 0.99%. This means short accounts dominate, with the long/short reading near the low side of recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
HMSTR shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is strengthening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.371 | 2.321 | 0.138 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.165 | 0.788 | 0.027 | Weak linkage |
| 180D | 0.31 | 0.833 | 0.096 | Moderate linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
HMSTR's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 22.31, near the middle of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 104.16, near the middle of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.42. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
ROC14 is +0.21%, while RSI is 46.67 and MACD histogram remains negative. Multi-day acceleration has improved, but the broader momentum picture is still incomplete.
The read is still incomplete: momentum is improving, but volatility or participation has not confirmed the move strongly enough.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. HMSTR has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends mainly on asset specific structure rather than the broader market.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For HMSTR, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.0004396 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.00012 USDT confirms a bearish regime.