Closed-candle research summary • Updated 2026-02-09
Built from closed daily candles only. It summarizes what the recent data shows using the latest confirmed close, not predictions.
Use it to understand the asset’s state, key levels, and how it has behaved relative to the Sigloid Index.
As of the most recent closed session (2026-02-09), the close is 3.923 (-1.13% vs the prior close).
55 day range levels are 3.132 (support) and 7.423 (resistance).
Asset state is BEARISH, active since 2026-01-29.
Breakdown level (acceptance line) is 5.246.
Acceptance is intact. The close is below the breakdown level (5.246), so the bearish state remains active by definition.
This breakdown is effectively an all-time low move within the last two years of data. Price pushed below 5.246 into a new low regime.
The close is below MA14 (4.4487), a short-term pivot.
The close is below MA200 (10.399), a long-horizon anchor level.
Friction is HIGH. This is a read of effort versus progress using multi-day candle quality and volatility behavior.
Volatility is 11.79% ATR and 64.04% Bollinger width. Relative volume signal (Z20) is -0.97.
Open interest is -5.57% over 1 day and -9.59% over 7 days.
Funding is 0.000050 and long/short ratio is 1.91.
Intent read: Follow-through. The active state is still being respected by the close.
60D correlation is strong (0.85). Correlation describes how consistently this asset moves in the same direction as the index.
180D correlation is strong (0.74), which helps confirm whether the relationship holds over a longer window.
60D beta is normal (1.13). Beta measures sensitivity: above 1 means amplified moves relative to the index, below 1 means muted moves.
180D beta is normal (1.06), a longer-horizon view of that sensitivity.
60D R² is high (0.72). R² is a reliability check: higher means more of this asset’s moves were explained by the index during the window.
180D R² is high (0.55), which reduces the risk of over-reading a short sample.
Volume is below its 14 day average and is falling versus recent norms, which frames participation quality.
Bollinger width is above its 14 day average, suggesting volatility is expanding versus the recent baseline.
ATR percent is above its 14 day average, so daily ranges are wider than the recent baseline.
RSI is below its 14 day average and weakening versus the last two weeks.
MACD histogram is above its 14 day average, a simple check on short-term momentum bias.
Open interest is below its 14 day average, which suggests leverage has been unwinding versus the recent baseline.
Funding is above its 14 day average, which helps flag crowding risk when it rises without matching price progress.
Sigloid Index bias is BEARISH (primary regime: BEARISH), active since 2026-02-09.
Alignment is aligned. Aligned conditions tend to be easier to sustain. Mixed or against conditions tend to be more fragile.
This asset has been strongly index-linked historically, so regime context from the index is more reliable for framing risk.
System definition: the bearish state remains active only while the daily close stays below 5.246. A close back above that level returns the state to SIDEWAYS.
| date | close | ma14 | ma50 | ma200 | rsi14 | macd_hist | roc14 | atr_pct | bb_width_pct | rv30 | vol_z20 | oi_usdt | funding_last | ls_ratio | basis_pct |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | 5.67 | 5.91 | 6.02 | 11.02 | 45.64 | -0.03 | 0.44 | unavailable | 18.61 | 83.50 | unavailable | 1222620 | 0.00002302 | 1.49 | unavailable |
| 2026-01-27 | 5.70 | 5.88 | 5.99 | 10.99 | 46.23 | -0.02 | -8.03 | unavailable | 18.68 | 83.53 | unavailable | 1277332 | 0.00005000 | 1.38 | unavailable |
| 2026-01-28 | 5.45 | 5.82 | 5.95 | 10.96 | 42.61 | -0.03 | -11.84 | unavailable | 19.77 | 84.10 | unavailable | 1285107 | 0.00005000 | 1.51 | unavailable |
| 2026-01-29 | 5.10 | 5.77 | 5.92 | 10.92 | 38.05 | -0.06 | -13.66 | unavailable | 22.81 | 86.91 | unavailable | 1299778 | 0.00002759 | 1.46 | unavailable |
| 2026-01-30 | 4.93 | 5.69 | 5.88 | 10.88 | 36.07 | -0.08 | -18.81 | unavailable | 26.50 | 87.46 | unavailable | 1232965 | 0.00005000 | 1.25 | unavailable |
| 2026-01-31 | 4.38 | 5.53 | 5.83 | 10.84 | 30.45 | -0.12 | -33.70 | unavailable | 34.16 | 91.89 | unavailable | 1224408 | -0.00014758 | 1.42 | unavailable |
| 2026-02-01 | 4.25 | 5.39 | 5.78 | 10.80 | 29.23 | -0.15 | -31.00 | unavailable | 41.27 | 91.45 | unavailable | 1046466 | -0.00003160 | 1.50 | unavailable |
| 2026-02-02 | 4.40 | 5.29 | 5.75 | 10.75 | 32.52 | -0.15 | -24.13 | unavailable | 45.01 | 92.78 | unavailable | 1062820 | -0.00006741 | 1.74 | unavailable |
| 2026-02-03 | 4.30 | 5.20 | 5.71 | 10.71 | 31.51 | -0.14 | -22.88 | unavailable | 48.48 | 92.57 | unavailable | 1105659 | 0.00004405 | 1.88 | unavailable |
| 2026-02-04 | 4.22 | 5.09 | 5.67 | 10.66 | 30.64 | -0.14 | -26.76 | unavailable | 52.39 | 92.12 | unavailable | 1049372 | 0.00005000 | 1.88 | unavailable |
| 2026-02-05 | 3.55 | 4.93 | 5.63 | 10.60 | 24.78 | -0.16 | -37.90 | unavailable | 59.96 | 104.33 | unavailable | 1009045 | 0.00003171 | 1.93 | unavailable |
| 2026-02-06 | 4.07 | 4.80 | 5.60 | 10.55 | 35.11 | -0.14 | -32.01 | unavailable | 59.28 | 117.84 | unavailable | 886166 | -0.00001788 | 1.90 | unavailable |
| 2026-02-07 | 4.03 | 4.67 | 5.56 | 10.50 | 34.78 | -0.11 | -30.98 | unavailable | 60.10 | 117.78 | unavailable | 1052185 | 0.00005000 | 1.84 | unavailable |
| 2026-02-08 | 3.97 | 4.57 | 5.52 | 10.45 | 34.10 | -0.09 | -25.10 | unavailable | 61.92 | 117.70 | unavailable | 1017471 | 0.00005000 | 1.84 | unavailable |
| 2026-02-09 | 3.92 | 4.45 | 5.49 | 10.40 | 33.61 | -0.07 | -30.76 | unavailable | 64.04 | 117.70 | unavailable | 960843 | 0.00005000 | 1.91 | unavailable |
Data source: Binance futures market data. Indicators use closed daily candles only.
Disclaimer: Research context only. Not financial advice. No prediction. Crypto markets are risky.