KAIA Daily Analysis Explained

Closed-candle research summary • Updated 2026-02-09

Last close: 0.055280 365D range: 0.044100 to 0.215600 Key levels (55D): 0.045480 / 0.096860 MA14: 0.058431 MA50: 0.060791 MA200: 0.106331 Asset state: SIDEWAYS (since 2026-02-06) Sigloid Index: Bias BEARISH • Regime BEARISH (2026-02-09)

Daily Analysis Explained

Built from closed daily candles only. It summarizes what the recent data shows using the latest confirmed close, not predictions.

Use it to understand the asset’s state, key levels, and how it has behaved relative to the Sigloid Index.

Price Structure and Asset State

As of the most recent closed session (2026-02-09), the close is 0.05528 (-0.40% vs the prior close).

55 day range levels are 0.04548 (support) and 0.09686 (resistance).

Asset state is SIDEWAYS, active since 2026-02-06.

State Monitoring and Trend References

Price is inside the 55 day range and currently sits in the lower part of that range.

The close is below MA14 (0.058431), a short-term pivot.

The close is below MA50 (0.060791), a medium-term guide.

The close is below MA200 (0.106331), a long-horizon anchor level.

Price Behavior and Friction

Friction is HIGH. This is a read of effort versus progress using multi-day candle quality and volatility behavior.

Volatility is 13.27% ATR and 70.42% Bollinger width. Relative volume signal (Z20) is -0.49.

Participation and Positioning

Open interest is 2.09% over 1 day and -5.95% over 7 days.

Funding is -0.000151 and long/short ratio is 0.71.

Intent read: De-risking. Open interest has been shrinking, which suggests leverage is being reduced.

Asset Sensitivity to the Sigloid Index

60D correlation is moderate (0.55). Correlation describes how consistently this asset moves in the same direction as the index.

180D correlation is strong (0.64), which helps confirm whether the relationship holds over a longer window.

60D beta is high (1.23). Beta measures sensitivity: above 1 means amplified moves relative to the index, below 1 means muted moves.

180D beta is normal (1.02), a longer-horizon view of that sensitivity.

60D R² is medium (0.30). R² is a reliability check: higher means more of this asset’s moves were explained by the index during the window.

180D R² is high (0.41), which reduces the risk of over-reading a short sample.

Indicator Trends

Volume is below its 14 day average and is falling versus recent norms, which frames participation quality.

Bollinger width is above its 14 day average, suggesting volatility is expanding versus the recent baseline.

ATR percent is below its 14 day average, so daily ranges have been narrowing versus recent conditions.

RSI is below its 14 day average and weakening versus the last two weeks.

MACD histogram is below its 14 day average, a simple check on short-term momentum bias.

Open interest is below its 14 day average, which suggests leverage has been unwinding versus the recent baseline.

Funding is below its 14 day average, which helps flag crowding risk when it rises without matching price progress.

Regime Alignment

Sigloid Index bias is BEARISH (primary regime: BEARISH), active since 2026-02-09.

Alignment is mixed. Aligned conditions tend to be easier to sustain. Mixed or against conditions tend to be more fragile.

Beta is high, which means index swings have tended to translate into amplified moves and higher volatility risk for this asset.

What Would Change the Asset State

System definition: BULLISH only on a daily close above 0.09686. BEARISH only on a daily close below 0.04548. Otherwise the state is SIDEWAYS.

Indicators, last 15 closed days

dateclosema14ma50ma200rsi14macd_histroc14atr_pctbb_width_pctrv30vol_z20oi_usdtfunding_lastls_ratiobasis_pct
2026-01-26 0.072170 0.063486 0.063910 0.113656 55.03 0.00 18.56 unavailable 62.79 197.18 unavailable 7816978 -0.00048435 1.21 unavailable
2026-01-27 0.074240 0.064174 0.063836 0.113249 56.29 0.00 14.92 unavailable 63.79 196.90 unavailable 6930801 -0.00025246 1.45 unavailable
2026-01-28 0.065860 0.064344 0.063570 0.112798 50.17 0.00 3.75 unavailable 63.76 201.42 unavailable 6264639 -0.00004317 1.15 unavailable
2026-01-29 0.057860 0.064163 0.063207 0.112307 45.13 0.00 -4.21 unavailable 64.68 206.45 unavailable 5779446 -0.00005613 0.93 unavailable
2026-01-30 0.057680 0.064024 0.062834 0.111819 45.02 -0.00 -3.27 unavailable 65.54 206.37 unavailable 4641163 0.00002751 0.82 unavailable
2026-01-31 0.055250 0.063739 0.062443 0.111328 43.49 -0.00 -6.72 unavailable 66.94 206.88 unavailable 4013457 -0.00007245 0.78 unavailable
2026-02-01 0.054130 0.063663 0.062008 0.110827 42.77 -0.00 -1.94 unavailable 68.38 206.79 unavailable 3709086 -0.00004560 0.61 unavailable
2026-02-02 0.063200 0.064290 0.061795 0.110331 50.02 -0.00 16.13 unavailable 68.41 214.39 unavailable 3646899 -0.00008383 0.55 unavailable
2026-02-03 0.059180 0.064913 0.061557 0.109791 47.17 -0.00 17.28 unavailable 68.79 214.78 unavailable 4336246 -0.00022456 0.78 unavailable
2026-02-04 0.058180 0.065329 0.061298 0.109254 46.46 -0.00 11.12 unavailable 69.12 213.57 unavailable 4068362 -0.00001280 1.15 unavailable
2026-02-05 0.049750 0.065151 0.061035 0.108635 40.87 -0.00 -4.77 unavailable 71.82 218.51 unavailable 3722619 -0.00022303 1.17 unavailable
2026-02-06 0.056790 0.064076 0.061068 0.108039 46.64 -0.00 -20.95 unavailable 72.23 224.11 unavailable 2967610 -0.00009589 0.75 unavailable
2026-02-07 0.055140 0.061206 0.060964 0.107413 45.52 -0.00 -42.15 unavailable 72.25 224.22 unavailable 3418638 -0.00031487 0.75 unavailable
2026-02-08 0.055500 0.059638 0.060871 0.106867 45.83 -0.00 -28.35 unavailable 71.97 224.11 unavailable 3359568 0.00001037 0.74 unavailable
2026-02-09 0.055280 0.058431 0.060791 0.106331 45.66 -0.00 -23.40 unavailable 70.42 223.94 unavailable 3429855 -0.00015125 0.71 unavailable

Data source: Binance futures market data. Indicators use closed daily candles only.

Disclaimer: Research context only. Not financial advice. No prediction. Crypto markets are risky.