Price Position and Structural State
Terra (LUNA2) closed at 0.04721 USDT on August 27, 2026, down 0.44%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure inside its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.03924 USDT, with resistance near 0.05498 USDT. Price is near the middle of the range, so the market has no clear structural edge until it closes outside these levels.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
LUNA2 is trading above short-term moving averages but remains below longer-term resistance. MA14 at 0.045703 USDT can act as near-term support for the recovery attempt, while MA9 at 0.047493 USDT is the key level to reclaim for a broader trend shift. Short-term structure has improved, but longer-term moving averages still show overhead resistance.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
LUNA2 shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 25.2. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest increased +1.30% in one day but remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is improving from a low leverage base.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.010752%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.010463%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 2.84 and has moved above its 180-day range. This means long accounts are unusually dominant compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
LUNA2 shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.447 | 0.788 | 0.2 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.555 | 0.88 | 0.308 | Moderate linkage |
| 180D | 0.553 | 0.776 | 0.306 | Moderate linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
LUNA2 is showing wider movement, but participation is not fully backing it. ATR% reads 6.52, close to the bottom of its full historical range, while Bollinger Band width% reads 25.36, near the lower side of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.38, showing near-normal participation.
Momentum is stronger. RSI is 55.84, ROC14 is +10.51%, and MACD histogram is positive. These readings point in the same direction: upside pressure is active across momentum and multi-day acceleration.
The read is still incomplete: momentum is improving, but volatility or participation has not confirmed the move strongly enough.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a bullish regime, showing broad strength across the market. LUNA2 has a moderate link to that market condition, so market strength can still influence price behavior, while asset specific factors also matter.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For LUNA2, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.05498 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.03924 USDT confirms a bearish regime.