Price Position and Structural State
Heroes of Mavia (MAVIA) closed at 0.02597 USDT on July 16, 2026, down 3.99%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.02179 USDT, with resistance near 0.03566 USDT. A daily close below 0.02179 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
MAVIA is trading below all key moving averages. MA9 at 0.028182 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. Price sits 8.57% below MA50, within its historical distance range of -48.08% to 104.24%. The moving-average structure is bearish without showing extreme downside extension.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
MAVIA shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 48.2. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -1.54% in one day, showing some exposure was reduced. OI sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so the move reduces leverage from a normal base rather than clearing an already crowded leverage base.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.007011%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 5.78, sitting near the upper side of its 180-day range at 93.69%. This means long accounts are unusually dominant compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
MAVIA shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.211 | 0.399 | 0.045 | Weak linkage |
| 60D | 0.429 | 0.654 | 0.184 | Moderate linkage |
| 180D | 0.636 | 0.881 | 0.404 | Strong linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
MAVIA's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 8.21, close to the bottom of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 29.62, near the lower side of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.72. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 38.32, ROC14 is -20.04%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. MAVIA has a moderate link to that market condition, so broader market moves can influence price behavior, but the effect is not consistent.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For MAVIA, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.03658 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.02179 USDT confirms a bearish regime.