Price Position and Structural State
Orochi Network (ON) closed at 0.10399 USDT on May 29, 2026, up 1.03%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.07754 USDT, with resistance near 0.215 USDT. A daily close below 0.07754 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
ON is trading below all key moving averages. MA200 at 0.105024 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. The more notable signal is downside extension: ON sits 19.04% below MA50, while its historical range runs from -36.30% to 96.01%. Price is now approaching the lower end of that historical range, which means the downside move is pronounced but also raises mean-reversion risk from a stretched position.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
ON shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 31.7. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -0.73% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 30-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.005000%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 2.04, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
ON shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is strengthening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.353 | 1.607 | 0.125 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.257 | 1.629 | 0.066 | Weak linkage |
| 180D | 0.13 | 0.435 | 0.017 | Weak linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
ON remains in a low-volatility setup. ATR% reads 14.53, near the lower side of its full historical range, and Bollinger Band width% reads 50.68, near the lower side of its 90-day range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.75, so participation is not forcing a broader move yet.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 39.33, ROC14 is -17.31%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is simple: volatility is compressed and momentum is not strong enough yet. A better signal would need range expansion with stronger volume.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. ON has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends mainly on asset specific structure rather than the broader market.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For ON, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.215 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.06624 USDT confirms a bearish regime.