Price Position and Structural State
Pump.fun (PUMP) closed at 0.001689 USDT on July 15, 2026, up 11.71%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the top of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.001149 USDT, with resistance near 0.001879 USDT. A daily close above 0.001879 USDT would confirm an upside regime shift. A rejection near resistance would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
PUMP is trading above short-term moving averages but remains below longer-term resistance. MA100 at 0.0016858 USDT can act as near-term support for the recovery attempt, while MA200 at 0.0019117 USDT is the key level to reclaim for a broader trend shift. Short-term structure has improved, but longer-term moving averages still show overhead resistance.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
PUMP shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 61.5. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest increased +1.20% in one day but remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is improving from a low leverage base.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.001036%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 0.62, sitting near the lower side of its 180-day range at 12.88%. This means short accounts dominate, with the long/short reading near the low side of recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
PUMP remains strongly linked to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index), with beta indicating higher sensitivity to index movements. Correlation confirms that PUMP moves in line with the index, while R² shows that index behavior explains a significant share of its movement. Elevated beta means price tends to amplify broader market moves rather than simply track them. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is weakening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is weakening. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.567 | 1.418 | 0.321 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.658 | 1.387 | 0.434 | Strong, high beta |
| 180D | 0.713 | 1.24 | 0.508 | Strong, high beta |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
PUMP has active volume inside a compressed structure. 20-day Volume Z-score is 2.15. ATR% reads 8.26, close to the bottom of its full historical range, and Bollinger Band width% reads 25.43, near the lower side of its full historical range. Participation is present, but price has not started moving freely yet.
Momentum is stronger. RSI is 60.43, ROC14 is +22.21%, and MACD histogram is positive. These readings point in the same direction: upside pressure is active across momentum and multi-day acceleration.
The read is constructive but early: momentum is strong, but price is still inside a compressed volatility structure. A cleaner expansion with volume would make it more meaningful.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. PUMP stays closely linked to that market condition, so changes in market sentiment can still influence price behavior even when the broader trend is unclear.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For PUMP, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.001879 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.001149 USDT confirms a bearish regime.