Price Position and Structural State
SuperRare (RARE) closed at 0.01417 USDT on October 15, 2026, down 3.93%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.01032 USDT, with resistance near 0.02491 USDT. A daily close below 0.01032 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
RARE is trading below short-term moving averages while still holding above longer-term support. MA200 at 0.014209 USDT may cap short-term recovery attempts, while MA100 at 0.013337 USDT remains the more significant structural support area. The structure resembles a pullback within a broader trend more than a full trend failure.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
RARE shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 33.4. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -7.98% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.004672%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.004953%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 1.32, sitting near the lower side of its 180-day range at 16.51%. This means long accounts still dominate, but the long tilt is weaker than usual compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
RARE shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is strengthening. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is strengthening.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.339 | 1.035 | 0.115 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.373 | 0.761 | 0.139 | Moderate linkage |
| 180D | 0.451 | 0.852 | 0.204 | Moderate linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
RARE's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 10.65, near the middle of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 42.42, near the middle of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.33. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 40.93, ROC14 is -18.42%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. RARE has a moderate link to that market condition, so broader market moves can influence price behavior, but the effect is not consistent.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For RARE, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.02491 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.01032 USDT confirms a bearish regime.