Price Position and Structural State
Ravencoin (RVN) closed at 0.003802 USDT on July 16, 2026, down 1.66%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.003597 USDT, with resistance near 0.00574 USDT. A daily close below 0.003597 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
RVN is trading below all key moving averages. MA9 at 0.0038259 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. Price sits 9.13% below MA50, within its historical distance range of -59.40% to 141.69%. The moving-average structure is bearish without showing extreme downside extension.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
RVN shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 30.2. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -4.29% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.001165%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 1.35, sitting near the lower side of its 90-day range at 9.46%. This means long accounts still dominate, but the long tilt is weaker than usual compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
RVN shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is weakening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.468 | 0.624 | 0.219 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.682 | 0.77 | 0.465 | Strong, lower beta |
| 180D | 0.785 | 0.782 | 0.617 | Strong, lower beta |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
RVN's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 5.90, close to the bottom of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 10.54, close to the bottom of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.30. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
MACD histogram has turned positive, while RSI is 43.51 and ROC14 is -0.65%. Short-term impulse is trying to turn first, but broader momentum and acceleration still lag.
The read is still incomplete: momentum is improving, but volatility or participation has not confirmed the move strongly enough.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. RVN has a moderate link to that market condition, so broader market moves can influence price behavior, but the effect is not consistent.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For RVN, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.00574 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.003597 USDT confirms a bearish regime.