Price Position and Structural State
Toshi (TOSHI) closed at 0.0001315 USDT on August 26, 2026, up 2.73%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the top of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.0000972 USDT, with resistance near 0.0001441 USDT. A daily close above 0.0001441 USDT would confirm an upside regime shift. A rejection near resistance would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
TOSHI is trading above short-term moving averages but remains below longer-term resistance. MA9 at 0.000122 USDT can act as near-term support for the recovery attempt, while MA200 at 0.0001579 USDT is the key level to reclaim for a broader trend shift. Short-term structure has improved, but longer-term moving averages still show overhead resistance.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
TOSHI shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 41.3. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -3.72% in one day, showing clear position reduction. OI sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so the move reduces leverage from a normal base rather than clearing an already crowded leverage base.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.004912%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 2.59, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
TOSHI remains strongly linked to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index), with beta showing normal sensitivity to index movements. Correlation confirms that TOSHI moves closely with the index, while R² shows that index behavior explains a significant share of its movement. This means broader market direction carries meaningful weight when interpreting TOSHI. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is weakening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.717 | 1.177 | 0.515 | Strong linkage |
| 60D | 0.63 | 1.06 | 0.397 | Strong linkage |
| 180D | 0.734 | 0.985 | 0.538 | Strong linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
TOSHI's bands are opening, but the move still lacks full support. Bollinger Band width% reads 48.14, above its 180-day range. ATR% reads 6.70, near the lower side of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.33, showing near-normal participation.
Momentum is stronger. RSI is 66.09, ROC14 is +31.50%, and MACD histogram is positive. These readings point in the same direction: upside pressure is active across momentum and multi-day acceleration.
The read is still incomplete: momentum is improving, but volatility or participation has not confirmed the move strongly enough.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a bullish regime, showing broad strength across the market. TOSHI stays closely linked to that market condition, so broader market strength can support price behavior and keep market direction important for this asset.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For TOSHI, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.0001441 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.0000972 USDT confirms a bearish regime.