Price Position and Structural State
Toshi (TOSHI) closed at 0.0001057 USDT on October 15, 2026, up 0.09%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.0001001 USDT, with resistance near 0.0001459 USDT. A daily close below 0.0001001 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
TOSHI is trading below all key moving averages. MA9 at 0.0001107 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. Price sits 11.35% below MA50, within its historical distance range of -46.18% to 26.13%. The moving-average structure is bearish without showing extreme downside extension.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
TOSHI shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 20.2. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest increased +1.42% in one day but remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is improving from a low leverage base.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.003899%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.004843%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 2.89 and has moved below its 30-day range. This means long accounts still dominate, but the long tilt is weaker than usual compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
TOSHI remains strongly linked to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index), with beta showing normal sensitivity to index movements. Correlation confirms that TOSHI moves closely with the index, while R² shows that index behavior explains a significant share of its movement. This means broader market direction carries meaningful weight when interpreting TOSHI. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.751 | 1.032 | 0.564 | Strong linkage |
| 60D | 0.744 | 1.087 | 0.554 | Strong linkage |
| 180D | 0.707 | 1.009 | 0.5 | Strong linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
TOSHI's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 6.97, near the lower side of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 26.02, near the middle of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 0.16. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 35.55, ROC14 is -13.78%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. TOSHI stays closely linked to that market condition, so changes in market sentiment can still influence price behavior even when the broader trend is unclear.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For TOSHI, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.0001459 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.0001036 USDT confirms a bearish regime.