Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) Range-Bound Price Structure, Support and Resistance

TSM market structure, key levels, and derivatives interpreted from closed daily data, and explaining its behavior relative to the broader crypto market.

As of 2026-07-16 | Symbol TSM | Last closed price 406.4
Last closed price
406.4
Closed daily candle only, no live price.
365 day range
335.63 to 479.04
Based on the last 365 closed daily candles.
Key levels (55D)
393.98 / 479.04
Support is lower, resistance is upper.

Price Position and Structural State

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) closed at 406.4 USDT on July 16, 2026, down 4.07%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 393.98 USDT, with resistance near 479.04 USDT. A daily close below 393.98 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.

Moving Averages and Trend Context

TSM is trading below all key moving averages. MA100 at 415.341 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. The more notable signal is downside extension: TSM sits 6.80% below MA50, while its historical range runs from -2.92% to 11.82%. Price has moved beyond the lower side of that historical range, which means the downside move is pronounced but also raises mean-reversion risk from a stretched position.

Trading Friction and Price Efficiency

TSM shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 45.0. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.

Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning

Open interest increased +0.34% in one day and moved above its 180-day range. This shows fresh leverage expansion, with new futures exposure now above the highest level from that range.

Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.003393%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.009009%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.

The long/short ratio is 3.49, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.

Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship

TSM shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable.

Correlation, Beta, and R² by Window
Relationship metrics compare this asset with the Sigloid Index across closed daily data windows.
WindowCorrelationBetaRead
30D-0.072-0.0940.005Inverse linkage
60D0.2090.210.044Weak linkage
180DNot enough data

Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure

TSM is moving more from day to day, but the broader volatility envelope has not fully opened. ATR% reads 4.42, near the upper side of its full historical range, while Bollinger Band width% reads 12.87, near the middle of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 3.09.

Momentum is weaker. RSI is 36.54, ROC14 is -7.23%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.

The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.

Broader Market Regime

The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. TSM has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends mainly on asset specific structure rather than the broader market.

Key Levels for the Next State Change

For TSM, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 479.04 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 393.98 USDT confirms a bearish regime.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) Historical Chart and Market Context

Sigloid historical research chart

This chart gives a historical research view of the asset, including daily price, ATR%, Bollinger Band width%, distance from moving averages, historical open interest, funding, historical long/short ratio, and rolling correlation, beta, and R² versus market benchmarks.

Chart Description

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) chart includes historical daily price data, RSI, MACD, moving averages, distance from key moving averages, ATR%, Bollinger Band width%, volume, open interest, funding, and long/short positioning. It also adds structural and statistical context, including 55-day price range position and historical range positioning for ATR%, Bollinger Band width%, open interest, and long/short ratio across 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, 180-day, and full-history windows. In addition, it provides multi-timeframe rolling correlation, beta, and R² versus the Sigloid Index, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, helping evaluate trend structure, volatility conditions, derivatives positioning, and broader market relationships in a single research view.

Data notes

Data source: Binance futures market data. Indicators use closed daily candles only.

Disclaimer: Research context only. Not financial advice. No prediction. Crypto markets are risky.

Research FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

Short answers based on closed daily structure, volatility, derivatives, and Bitcoin relationship data.

What is the current market structure for TSM?+

TSM is currently in a sideways structure based on closed daily data. Price remains inside the 55-day range, so Sigloid treats the structure as unresolved.

What are the key support and resistance levels for TSM?+

TSM's nearest support is 55-day support near 393.98 USDT, while nearest resistance is 55-day resistance near 479.04 USDT. These levels come from the lower side of the 55-day range and the upper side of the 55-day range.

What would change the current TSM structure?+

A daily close above 55-day resistance near 479.04 USDT would support a bullish shift. A daily close below 55-day support near 393.98 USDT would support a bearish shift.

What do momentum and volatility show for TSM?+

TSM's momentum is mixed. RSI reads 36.54, ROC14 is -7.23%, while ATR% and Bollinger Band width% show the current volatility backdrop.

What do open interest and long/short positioning show for TSM?+

Open interest and positioning show short-side pressure. OI changed +0.34% over one day, while the long/short ratio reads 3.49.

How correlated is TSM with Bitcoin?+

TSM currently shows weak linkage with Bitcoin on the 30-day window. Correlation is -0.10, beta is -0.16, and R² is 0.01.

Is Sigloid's TSM analysis based on live price?+

No. Sigloid's daily TSM analysis uses closed daily market data, not live intraday price. Live structure changes are tracked separately on the Live Events page.