Price Position and Structural State
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) closed at 423.45 USDT on October 15, 2026, down 0.10%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 405.82 USDT, with resistance near 487.74 USDT. A daily close below 405.82 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
TSM is trading below all key moving averages, but the weakness is still early rather than deeply stretched. MA100 at 429.22 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to reclaim. Price sits 4.01% below MA50, within a historical range of -12.88% to 12.13%. The structure is bearish, but downside extension remains inside its normal range.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
TSM shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 42.4. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest increased sharply +10.88% in one day and moved above its 180-day range. This shows fresh leverage expansion, with new futures exposure now above the highest level from that range.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.006808%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.005475%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 2.46, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
TSM shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is strengthening. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.615 | 0.387 | 0.378 | Strong, lower beta |
| 60D | 0.419 | 0.22 | 0.175 | Moderate linkage |
| 180D | 0.29 | 0.264 | 0.084 | Weak linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
TSM is trading with expanding volatility. ATR% reads 2.78, near the upper side of its 60-day range, and Bollinger Band width% reads 14.51, close to the top of its 60-day range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 3.53, showing strong above-normal participation. Range movement, volatility structure, and participation are working together.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 32.68, ROC14 is -7.87%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. TSM has a moderate link to that market condition, so broader market moves can influence price behavior, but the effect is not consistent.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For TSM, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 487.74 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 405.82 USDT confirms a bearish regime.