Price Position and Structural State
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) closed at 423.64 USDT on July 15, 2026, down 0.18%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure inside its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 393.98 USDT, with resistance near 479.04 USDT. Price is near the middle of the range, so the market has no clear structural edge until it closes outside these levels.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
TSM is trading inside a zone of moving-average confluence. MA100 at 414.883 USDT sits just below price, while MA9 at 432.501 USDT sits just above. The compression across multiple moving averages signals range contraction rather than trend dominance. The next meaningful read comes from price separating cleanly from this cluster.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
TSM shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 27.7. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest increased sharply +37.85% in one day and moved above its 180-day range. This shows fresh leverage expansion, with new futures exposure now above the highest level from that range.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.021927%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.010488%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 3.52, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
TSM shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | -0.112 | -0.145 | 0.012 | Inverse linkage |
| 60D | 0.192 | 0.19 | 0.037 | Weak linkage |
| 180D | — | — | — | Not enough data |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
TSM's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 3.96, near the middle of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 11.07, near the lower side of its 30-day range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 0.87. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 43.08, ROC14 is -5.57%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. TSM has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends mainly on asset specific structure rather than the broader market.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For TSM, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 479.04 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 393.98 USDT confirms a bearish regime.