Price Position and Structural State
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) closed at 406.4 USDT on July 16, 2026, down 4.07%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 393.98 USDT, with resistance near 479.04 USDT. A daily close below 393.98 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
TSM is trading below all key moving averages. MA100 at 415.341 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. The more notable signal is downside extension: TSM sits 6.80% below MA50, while its historical range runs from -2.92% to 11.82%. Price has moved beyond the lower side of that historical range, which means the downside move is pronounced but also raises mean-reversion risk from a stretched position.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
TSM shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 45.0. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest increased +0.34% in one day and moved above its 180-day range. This shows fresh leverage expansion, with new futures exposure now above the highest level from that range.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.003393%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.009009%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 3.49, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
TSM shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | -0.072 | -0.094 | 0.005 | Inverse linkage |
| 60D | 0.209 | 0.21 | 0.044 | Weak linkage |
| 180D | — | — | — | Not enough data |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
TSM is moving more from day to day, but the broader volatility envelope has not fully opened. ATR% reads 4.42, near the upper side of its full historical range, while Bollinger Band width% reads 12.87, near the middle of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 3.09.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 36.54, ROC14 is -7.23%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. TSM has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends mainly on asset specific structure rather than the broader market.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For TSM, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 479.04 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 393.98 USDT confirms a bearish regime.