Price Position and Structural State
dogwifhat (WIF) closed at 0.151 USDT on July 16, 2026, down 1.05%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.1368 USDT, with resistance near 0.1999 USDT. A daily close below 0.1368 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
WIF is trading below all key moving averages. MA9 at 0.152967 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. The more notable signal is downside extension: WIF sits 8.31% below MA50, while its historical range runs from -57.79% to 292.58%. Price is now approaching the lower end of that historical range, which means the downside move is pronounced but also raises mean-reversion risk from a stretched position.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
WIF shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 22.6. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -3.36% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.002657%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.001147%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 0.89, sitting near the lower side of its 180-day range at 9.89%. This means short accounts dominate, with the long/short reading near the low side of recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
WIF remains strongly linked to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index), with beta showing normal sensitivity to index movements. Correlation confirms that WIF moves closely with the index, while R² shows that index behavior explains a significant share of its movement. This means broader market direction carries meaningful weight when interpreting WIF. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is weakening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.559 | 0.864 | 0.313 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.648 | 0.975 | 0.419 | Strong linkage |
| 180D | 0.767 | 1.121 | 0.589 | Strong linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
WIF's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 6.67, close to the bottom of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 25.71, close to the bottom of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.37. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 40.61, ROC14 is -12.41%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. WIF stays closely linked to that market condition, so changes in market sentiment can still influence price behavior even when the broader trend is unclear.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For WIF, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.2043 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.1368 USDT confirms a bearish regime.