Walmart Inc. (WMT) Bullish Price Structure, Support and Resistance

WMT market structure, key levels, and derivatives interpreted from closed daily data, and explaining its behavior relative to the broader crypto market.

As of 2026-10-15 | Symbol WMT | Last closed price 118.13
Last closed price
118.13
Closed daily candle only, no live price.
365 day range
102.31 to 135.97
Based on the last 365 closed daily candles.
Key levels (55D)
102.31 / 121.42
Support is lower, resistance is upper.

Price Position and Structural State

Walmart Inc. (WMT) closed at 118.13 USDT on October 15, 2026, up 1.04%. The asset now sits in a bullish structure. Price entered this structure after closing above 55-day resistance at 116.52 USDT on October 14, 2026. Current 55-day support is near 102.31 USDT, with resistance near 121.42 USDT. A daily close below MA14 at 110.145 USDT would weaken the regime and shift price back into sideways.

Breakout Context: 112-Session Compression

Walmart Inc. spent about 112 sessions consolidating below the 116.52 USDT resistance level before a breakout closed above it. This confirmed the bullish structural transition. The major compression period shows sustained pressure at the resistance level, where repeated attempts failed until buyers took control and pushed the price higher.

Moving Averages and Trend Context

WMT is trading above all key moving averages. MA9 at 112.682 USDT stands as the first moving-average support area to watch. The more meaningful signal is extension risk: WMT sits 7.66% above MA100, outside its historical distance range of -10.08% to 6.61%. Price has moved beyond its normal moving-average relationship, which raises mean-reversion risk even inside an uptrend. WMT recently closed above its prior 55-day high, shifting its structure into a bullish regime. MA50 is rising at +0.82% over 10 days, but MA100 remains at -0.97% over 20 days, showing the breakout has short-to-medium-term moving-average alignment but has not yet pulled longer-term averages higher.

Trading Friction and Price Efficiency

WMT shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 59.5. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.

Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning

Open interest increased +6.02% in one day, showing fresh leverage entering the market. OI sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so the move adds leverage from a normal base rather than from a stretched one.

Funding is near neutral across the 24-hour and 7-day averages, at 0.000000% and +0.007862%. This shows limited cost pressure on either side, so funding is not giving a strong directional signal right now.

The long/short ratio is 2.31 and has moved below its 30-day range. This means long accounts still dominate, but the long tilt is weaker than usual compared with recent history.

Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship

WMT shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is weakening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable.

Correlation, Beta, and R² by Window
Relationship metrics compare this asset with the Sigloid Index across closed daily data windows.
WindowCorrelationBetaR²Read
30D-0.367-0.1890.135Inverse linkage
60D-0.223-0.1310.05Inverse linkage
180D———Not enough data

Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure

WMT is trading with expanding volatility. ATR% reads 2.07, above its 30-day range, and Bollinger Band width% reads 14.18, above its 30-day range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 1.00, showing above-normal participation. Range movement, volatility structure, and participation are working together.

Momentum is stronger. RSI is 74.83, ROC14 is +12.85%, and MACD histogram is positive. These readings point in the same direction: upside pressure is active across momentum and multi-day acceleration.

The read is clear: volatility, participation, and momentum are aligned, so the pressure build carries more weight.

Broader Market Regime

The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. WMT has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends mainly on asset specific structure rather than the broader market.

Key Levels for the Next State Change

For WMT, the next structural shift depends on key levels. Staying above MA14 at 110.145 USDT keeps the current trend intact. A daily close below MA14 would weaken the structure and push price back into a range, while a confirmed break below 55-day support at 102.31 USDT would establish a bearish regime.

Walmart Inc. (WMT) Historical Chart and Market Context

Sigloid historical research chart

This chart gives a historical research view of the asset, including daily price, ATR%, Bollinger Band width%, distance from moving averages, historical open interest, funding, historical long/short ratio, and rolling correlation, beta, and R² versus market benchmarks.

Chart Description

The Walmart Inc. (WMT) chart includes historical daily price data, RSI, MACD, moving averages, distance from key moving averages, ATR%, Bollinger Band width%, volume, open interest, funding, and long/short positioning. It also adds structural and statistical context, including 55-day price range position and historical range positioning for ATR%, Bollinger Band width%, open interest, and long/short ratio across 30-day, 60-day, 90-day, 180-day, and full-history windows. In addition, it provides multi-timeframe rolling correlation, beta, and R² versus the Sigloid Index, Bitcoin, and Ethereum, helping evaluate trend structure, volatility conditions, derivatives positioning, and broader market relationships in a single research view.

Data notes

Data source: Binance futures market data. Indicators use closed daily candles only.

Disclaimer: Research context only. Not financial advice. No prediction. Crypto markets are risky.

Research FAQ

Frequently Asked Questions

Short answers based on closed daily structure, volatility, derivatives, and Bitcoin relationship data.

What is the current market structure for WMT?+

WMT is currently in a bullish structure based on closed daily data. Sigloid treats this as an accepted move above the prior 55-day range until structure weakens.

What are the key support and resistance levels for WMT?+

WMT's nearest support is MA9 near 112.682 USDT. Price has already moved beyond its historical extreme extension from key moving averages, while ATR% and Bollinger Band width% show elevated stretch. Sigloid does not assign a fixed resistance level here; the cleaner read is price discovery with elevated extension risk.

What would change the current WMT structure?+

The bullish structure would weaken if WMT loses its key moving-average base or closes back inside the prior range. A deeper defensive shift would need a close below 55-day support near 102.31 USDT.

What do momentum and volatility show for WMT?+

WMT's momentum is mixed. RSI reads 74.83, ROC14 is +12.85%, while ATR% and Bollinger Band width% show the current volatility backdrop.

What do open interest and long/short positioning show for WMT?+

Open interest and positioning show balanced participation. OI changed +6.02% over one day, while the long/short ratio reads 2.31.

How correlated is WMT with Bitcoin?+

WMT currently shows weak linkage with Bitcoin on the 30-day window. Correlation is -0.30, beta is -0.21, and R² is 0.09.

Is Sigloid's WMT analysis based on live price?+

No. Sigloid's daily WMT analysis uses closed daily market data, not live intraday price. Live structure changes are tracked separately on the Live Events page.