Price Position and Structural State
Walmart Inc. (WMT) closed at 103.15 USDT on August 28, 2026, up 0.31%. The asset now sits in a bearish structure. Price entered this structure after closing below 55-day support at 106.8 USDT on August 20, 2026. Current 55-day support is near 102.31 USDT, with resistance near 118.08 USDT. A daily close above MA14 at 108.223 USDT would weaken the regime and shift price back into sideways.
Breakdown Context: several-Session Support Pressure
Walmart Inc. spent about several sessions consolidating above the 106.8 USDT support level before a breakdown closed below it. This confirmed the bearish structural transition. The compression period shows sustained pressure at the support level, where repeated attempts to hold failed until sellers took control and pushed the price lower.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
WMT is trading below all key moving averages. MA9 at 104.302 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. The more notable signal is downside extension: WMT sits 7.37% below MA50, while its historical range runs from -7.80% to 3.10%. Price is now approaching the lower end of that historical range, which means the downside move is pronounced but also raises mean-reversion risk from a stretched position.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
WMT shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 42.9. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest data is limited for this asset, so the leverage range cannot be judged reliably yet. This makes futures participation harder to compare with recent history.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.037569%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.023070%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 5.33, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
WMT shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | -0.284 | -0.213 | 0.081 | Inverse linkage |
| 60D | -0.315 | -0.236 | 0.099 | Inverse linkage |
| 180D | — | — | — | Not enough data |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
WMT's bands are opening, but the move still lacks full support. Bollinger Band width% reads 19.35, above its full historical range. ATR% reads 2.47, near the middle of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 0.31, showing near-normal participation.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 31.99, ROC14 is -10.62%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a bullish regime, showing broad strength across the market. WMT has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends more on its own structure than on the broader market trend.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For WMT, the next structural shift depends on key levels. Staying below MA14 at 108.223 USDT keeps the current trend intact. A daily close above MA14 would weaken the structure and push price back into a range, while a confirmed break above 55-day resistance at 118.08 USDT would establish a bullish regime.