Price Position and Structural State
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc. (AAOI) closed at 106.53 USDT on August 29, 2026, down 0.44%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure inside its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 74.17 USDT, with resistance near 161.26 USDT. Price is near the middle of the range, so the market has no clear structural edge until it closes outside these levels.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
AAOI is trading below the available moving averages. MA9 at 110.826 USDT stands as the first resistance area to watch. Long-term moving-average history is still forming, so the most reliable reads come from current price structure and shorter-term moving-average resistance. Once MA100 and MA200 establish, the trend read will carry more historical context.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
AAOI shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 32.9. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -5.91% in one day but remains near the upper side of its 180-day range. This shows leverage is still elevated, even though some positions were reduced.
Funding is negative on the 24-hour average at -0.002268%, while the 7-day average is +0.007376%. This shows fresh short-side cost pressure rather than a sustained build across the week.
The long/short ratio is 2.26, sitting near the upper side of its 30-day range at 91.39%. This means long accounts are unusually dominant compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
AAOI shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | -0.206 | -0.55 | 0.043 | Inverse linkage |
| 60D | 0.049 | 0.17 | 0.002 | Weak linkage |
| 180D | — | — | — | Not enough data |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
AAOI's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 11.40, near the middle of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 52.70, near the middle of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -1.58. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 41.00, ROC14 is -30.95%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a bullish regime, showing broad strength across the market. AAOI has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends more on its own structure than on the broader market trend.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For AAOI, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 161.26 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 74.17 USDT confirms a bearish regime.