Price Position and Structural State
AS Roma Fan Token (ASR) closed at 0.8261 USDT on October 15, 2026, down 0.71%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.788 USDT, with resistance near 1.0089 USDT. A daily close below 0.788 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
ASR is trading below all key moving averages, but the weakness is still early rather than deeply stretched. MA9 at 0.855989 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to reclaim. Price sits 4.50% below MA50, within a historical range of -42.47% to 148.97%. The structure is bearish, but downside extension remains inside its normal range.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
ASR shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 21.2. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -2.17% in one day, showing clear position reduction. OI sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so the move reduces leverage from a normal base rather than clearing an already crowded leverage base.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.005000%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 3.12, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
ASR remains strongly linked to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index), but its beta shows lower sensitivity. Correlation confirms that ASR tends to move with the index, while R² indicates that index behavior explains a meaningful share of its movement. Lower beta means price moves with less intensity than the index, not that the relationship is weak. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.72 | 0.495 | 0.518 | Strong, lower beta |
| 60D | 0.728 | 0.441 | 0.53 | Strong, lower beta |
| 180D | 0.362 | 0.454 | 0.131 | Moderate linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
ASR remains in a low-volatility setup. ATR% reads 4.52, close to the bottom of its full historical range, and Bollinger Band width% reads 9.02, close to the bottom of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.37, so participation is not forcing a broader move yet.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 38.31, ROC14 is -4.54%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is simple: volatility is compressed and momentum is not strong enough yet. A better signal would need range expansion with stronger volume.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. ASR stays closely linked to that market condition, so changes in market sentiment can still influence price behavior even when the broader trend is unclear.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For ASR, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 1.0089 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.788 USDT confirms a bearish regime.