Price Position and Structural State
GraniteShares 2x Long INTC Daily ETF (INTW) closed at 19.15 USDT on October 15, 2026, down 2.30%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 16.75 USDT, with resistance near 37.4 USDT. A daily close below 16.75 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
INTW is trading below all key moving averages. MA9 at 22.966 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. The more notable signal is downside extension: INTW sits 24.03% below MA50, while its historical range runs from -22.21% to 53.50%. Price has moved beyond the lower side of that historical range, which means the downside move is pronounced but also raises mean-reversion risk from a stretched position.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
INTW shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 52.9. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -2.67% in one day but remains near the upper side of its 180-day range. This shows leverage is still elevated, even though some positions were reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.011270%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.012170%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 1.81, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
INTW shows a moderate relationship with the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation indicates partial co-movement with the index, while R² suggests that index behavior explains only part of its movement. This means broader market direction has some influence, but asset-specific factors remain important. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is strengthening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is strengthening.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.585 | 1.632 | 0.342 | Moderate linkage |
| 60D | 0.321 | 0.724 | 0.103 | Moderate linkage |
| 180D | — | — | — | Not enough data |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
INTW is trading with expanding volatility. ATR% reads 13.45, close to the top of its 60-day range, and Bollinger Band width% reads 63.40, near the upper side of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 2.57, showing strong above-normal participation. Range movement, volatility structure, and participation are working together.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 31.02, ROC14 is -38.84%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. INTW has a moderate link to that market condition, so broader market moves can influence price behavior, but the effect is not consistent.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For INTW, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 37.4 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 16.75 USDT confirms a bearish regime.