Price Position and Structural State
Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) closed at 0.04217 USDT on July 16, 2026, down 2.74%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.03769 USDT, with resistance near 0.059 USDT. A daily close below 0.03769 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
PNUT is trading below all key moving averages, but the weakness is still early rather than deeply stretched. MA9 at 0.04272 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to reclaim. Price sits 4.55% below MA50, within a historical range of -69.08% to 141.99%. The structure is bearish, but downside extension remains inside its normal range.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
PNUT shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 40.4. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -1.75% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.003068%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.003199%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 1.59, sitting near the upper side of its 90-day range at 80.41%. This means long accounts are unusually dominant compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
PNUT remains strongly linked to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index), with beta showing normal sensitivity to index movements. Correlation confirms that PNUT moves closely with the index, while R² shows that index behavior explains a significant share of its movement. This means broader market direction carries meaningful weight when interpreting PNUT. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is weakening. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.607 | 0.76 | 0.369 | Strong, lower beta |
| 60D | 0.685 | 0.957 | 0.469 | Strong linkage |
| 180D | 0.707 | 1.209 | 0.499 | Strong, high beta |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
PNUT remains in a low-volatility setup. ATR% reads 5.57, close to the bottom of its full historical range, and Bollinger Band width% reads 12.63, close to the bottom of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.89, so participation is not forcing a broader move yet.
MACD histogram has turned positive, while RSI is 44.19 and ROC14 is -2.77%. Short-term impulse is trying to turn first, but broader momentum and acceleration still lag.
The read is early: some pressure is improving, but the asset remains compressed. A better signal would need range expansion and stronger volume.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. PNUT stays closely linked to that market condition, so changes in market sentiment can still influence price behavior even when the broader trend is unclear.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For PNUT, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.06081 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.03769 USDT confirms a bearish regime.