Price Position and Structural State
Peanut the Squirrel (PNUT) closed at 0.04572 USDT on October 15, 2026, down 0.17%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.04249 USDT, with resistance near 0.06214 USDT. A daily close below 0.04249 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
PNUT is trading below all key moving averages. MA100 at 0.046634 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. Price sits 9.53% below MA50, within its historical distance range of -69.08% to 141.99%. The moving-average structure is bearish without showing extreme downside extension.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
PNUT shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 26.9. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -2.60% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 30-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is near neutral across the 24-hour and 7-day averages, at +0.000949% and +0.003673%. This shows limited cost pressure on either side, so funding is not giving a strong directional signal right now.
The long/short ratio is 1.32, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
PNUT remains strongly linked to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index), with beta indicating higher sensitivity to index movements. Correlation confirms that PNUT moves in line with the index, while R² shows that index behavior explains a significant share of its movement. Elevated beta means price tends to amplify broader market moves rather than simply track them. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is strengthening.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.856 | 1.368 | 0.732 | Strong, high beta |
| 60D | 0.787 | 1.173 | 0.62 | Strong linkage |
| 180D | 0.689 | 1.07 | 0.474 | Strong linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
PNUT is moving more from day to day, but the broader volatility envelope has not fully opened. ATR% reads 7.68, close to the bottom of its full historical range, while Bollinger Band width% reads 24.32, close to the bottom of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is 2.06.
Momentum is weaker. RSI is 36.69, ROC14 is -15.49%, and MACD histogram is negative. These readings point in the same direction: downside pressure is active, while recovery pressure remains limited.
The read is cautious: downside momentum is active, but volatility and participation do not confirm a strong break yet.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. PNUT stays closely linked to that market condition, so changes in market sentiment can still influence price behavior even when the broader trend is unclear.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For PNUT, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.06214 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.04249 USDT confirms a bearish regime.