Price Position and Structural State
Worldcoin (WLD) closed at 0.388 USDT on July 16, 2026, down 4.48%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.2584 USDT, with resistance near 0.7229 USDT. A daily close below 0.2584 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
WLD is trading below short-term moving averages while still holding above longer-term support. MA200 at 0.39085 USDT may cap short-term recovery attempts, while MA100 at 0.366707 USDT remains the more significant structural support area. The structure resembles a pullback within a broader trend more than a full trend failure.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
WLD shows moderate trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 45.7. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show mixed acceptance, so price is moving but still showing some noise. Moves near support or resistance need a cleaner daily close before they carry stronger weight.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -4.87% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 30-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is negative on the 24-hour average at -0.004150%, while the 7-day average is +0.001017%. This shows fresh short-side cost pressure rather than a sustained build across the week.
The long/short ratio is 1.17, sitting near the lower side of its 90-day range at 19.17%. This means long accounts only slightly outnumber short accounts, and the long tilt is weak compared with recent history.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
WLD shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 180-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.267 | 0.61 | 0.071 | Weak linkage |
| 60D | 0.246 | 0.908 | 0.061 | Weak linkage |
| 180D | 0.5 | 1.16 | 0.25 | Moderate linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
WLD remains in a low-volatility setup. ATR% reads 10.70, close to the bottom of its 30-day range, and Bollinger Band width% reads 21.60, close to the bottom of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -1.57, so participation is not forcing a broader move yet.
MACD histogram has turned positive, while RSI is 42.84 and ROC14 is -3.98%. Short-term impulse is trying to turn first, but broader momentum and acceleration still lag.
The read is early: some pressure is improving, but the asset remains compressed. A better signal would need range expansion and stronger volume.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. WLD has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends mainly on asset specific structure rather than the broader market.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For WLD, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.7229 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.2584 USDT confirms a bearish regime.