Price Position and Structural State
Fogo (FOGO) closed at 0.00944 USDT on July 13, 2026, down 2.48%. The asset now sits in a sideways structure near the bottom of its 55-day range. Current 55-day support is near 0.0087 USDT, with resistance near 0.02055 USDT. A daily close below 0.0087 USDT would confirm a downside regime shift. A hold near support would keep price inside the range.
Moving Averages and Trend Context
FOGO is trading below all key moving averages. MA14 at 0.0094807 USDT stands as the first moving-average resistance area to watch. Price sits 19.09% below MA50, within its historical distance range of -37.64% to 18.72%. The moving-average structure is bearish without showing extreme downside extension.
Trading Friction and Price Efficiency
FOGO shows high trading friction, with a 3-day friction score of 25.7. The score combines price progress, wick rejection, and volume confirmation. Recent candles show contested movement, with weak price progress or heavier wick rejection. In this condition, moves near support or resistance carry less weight until price closes more cleanly.
Open Interest, Funding, and Positioning
Open interest fell -4.58% in one day and remains near the lower side of its 180-day range. This shows participation is weak and exposure is still being reduced.
Funding is positive on the 24-hour average at +0.005000%, with the 7-day average also positive at +0.005000%. This shows sustained long-side cost pressure across both short and medium windows.
The long/short ratio is 1.96, showing more long accounts than short accounts. It sits near the middle of its 60-day range, so this is a long tilt without clear historical crowding.
Correlation, Beta, and Index Relationship
FOGO shows weak linkage to the broader crypto market (Sigloid Index). Correlation is limited, and R² indicates that index behavior explains only a small portion of its movement. This suggests price action is largely driven by asset-specific factors rather than broader market direction. Over the 30-day window, the relationship is stable. Over the 60-day window, the relationship is stable.
| Window | Correlation | Beta | R² | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30D | 0.093 | 0.259 | 0.009 | Weak linkage |
| 60D | 0.201 | 0.53 | 0.04 | Weak linkage |
| 180D | 0.361 | 0.717 | 0.131 | Moderate linkage |
Momentum, Volatility, and Indicator Pressure
FOGO's volatility profile is controlled rather than stretched. ATR% reads 9.74, close to the bottom of its full historical range. Bollinger Band width% reads 43.67, near the middle of its full historical range. 20-day Volume Z-score is -0.53. Range expansion is not leading the setup right now.
Impulse and acceleration are improving, but broader momentum is still weaker. MACD histogram is positive and ROC14 is +2.05%, while RSI is 41.28.
The read is still incomplete: momentum is improving, but volatility or participation has not confirmed the move strongly enough.
Broader Market Regime
The Sigloid Index remains in a sideways regime, showing no clear broad market direction. FOGO has a weak link to that market condition, so price behavior depends mainly on asset specific structure rather than the broader market.
Key Levels for the Next State Change
For FOGO, the next structural shift depends on range boundaries. A daily close above 55-day resistance at 0.02056 USDT establishes a bullish regime, while a daily close below 55-day support at 0.0087 USDT confirms a bearish regime.